Writing

Notes on risk, markets and the data behind them

Short essays on climate and credit risk, financial stability, event studies and market structure. I write to work out what I think, then fix it when I find out I was wrong.

  • How a flood becomes a loan default

    Four channels carry a climate shock from a field or a street to a bank's non-performing loans, and why measuring them takes more than a rainfall chart.

    2 min read · climate risk credit risk econometrics

  • Reading an event study without fooling yourself

    An event study measures how much a price moved because of news. Most of the care goes into what you compare the price with, and when you decide the news happened.

    2 min read · event studies markets econometrics

  • What a liquidation cascade is, in plain terms

    How borrowed money turns a price dip into forced selling, and why the same mechanism shows up in crypto exchanges and in older financial crises.

    2 min read · markets leverage financial stability

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